Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
