Just eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international drilled in his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. Against United, Manchester United managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
